最新一期《肉牛养殖户意向调查（BPIS）快速调研》显示，澳大利亚肉牛养殖户基本维持原有畜群规划，同时根据牲畜生长状况、季节气候与市场机会调整牛只出栏销售计划。

调查发现，83%的养殖户延续了4月上报的畜群规划；澳大利亚2026年秋季犊牛出生量基本持平，为249万头。

澳大利亚肉类及畜牧业协会（MLA）高级市场分析师埃米利亚诺·迪亚兹表示，调研结果说明养殖户对长期规划仍保有信心，同时会结合自身牧场实际情况灵活调整。

“本次调研传递出最核心的信息之一：养殖户会依据牧场现状与市场行情审慎做决策。”迪亚兹称。

“气候条件、牲畜生长性能、生产目标以及市场信号，都会影响相关决策。”

“超八成养殖户维持今年早些时候确定的畜群规划，这一数据体现出行业信心。”

和4月的预期相比，牛只出栏量出现明显变化：2026年上半年养殖户预计出栏473万头牛，而年初预测值为519万头。

在实际出栏量低于计划的养殖户中，38%表示牛只尚未达到目标体重，19%选择留存牛只，期待后续价格走高。

迪亚兹表示，出栏量下降由多重因素共同造成，并非单一市场趋势导致。

“对很多养殖户而言，牛只没能按最初预期达到可出栏状态。”迪亚兹解释。

“背后存在各类生产因素，包括部分地区年初遭遇恶劣气候，影响牛只增重以及出栏时间。”

“还有一部分受市场预期影响，部分养殖户选择延长饲养周期，以期获得更高收益。”

调研同时体现出，秋季产犊规模与牛只出栏情况存在地区差异，反映气候与市场持续影响澳大利亚不同生产体系下养殖户的决策。

“BPIS调查能够直观呈现牧场现状，以及影响后续肉牛供给的各类因素。”迪亚兹说。

“调研结果表明，行业整体发展信心稳固，养殖户持续根据牧场与市场环境，调整畜群管理和出栏决策。”

肉牛养殖户意向调查由MLA设计，旨在为行业提供有关养殖户意向与市场情绪的可靠数据，也是MLA肉牛行业预测模型的数据来源之一。

本次快速调研于2026年7月1日至7月31日面向放牧型肉牛养殖户收集问卷，共有全澳1284名养殖户参与作答。

消息来源：MLA

Australian beef producers are largely maintaining their herd plans while adjusting cattle sales in response to livestock readiness, seasonal conditions and market opportunities, according to the latest Beef Producers Intentions Survey (BPIS) Pulse Survey.

The survey found 83% of producers have maintained the herd intentions they reported in April, while Australia’s 2026 autumn calf drop remained largely unchanged at 2.49 million head.

MLA Senior Market Analyst Emiliano Diaz said the results show producers remain confident in their longer-term plans while responding to conditions within their individual businesses.

“One of the strongest messages from this survey is that producers are making deliberate decisions based on what is happening on farm as well as the market,” Mr Diaz said.

“Seasonal conditions, livestock performance, production targets and market signals are all influencing those decisions.

“That confidence is reflected in the fact that more than eight in 10 producers have maintained the same herd intentions they reported earlier this year.”

The most notable shift from April expectations was in cattle sales, with producers selling an estimated 4.73 million head during the first six months of 2026, compared with the 5.19 million head forecast earlier in the year.

Among producers who sold fewer cattle than planned, 38% reported animals had not yet reached their target weight, while 19% said they were holding cattle in anticipation of stronger prices.

Mr Diaz said the results demonstrate that lower sales were driven by a range of factors rather than a single market trend.

“For many producers, cattle simply weren’t ready to sell when they had initially expected,” Mr Diaz said.

“That can reflect a range of production factors, including pockets of tougher seasonal conditions experienced in some regions earlier in the year, which can affect weight gain and the timing of turn-off.

“For others, market expectations also played a role, with some producers choosing to retain cattle longer where they saw an opportunity for stronger returns.”

The survey also highlighted regional differences in autumn calving and cattle sales outcomes, demonstrating how seasonal and market conditions continue to influence decision-making across Australia’s diverse production systems.

“The BPIS provides a valuable picture of what’s happening on farm and the factors shaping future cattle supply,” Mr Diaz said.

“These results show an industry that remains confident in its direction while continuing to adapt herd management and turn-off decisions to conditions on farm and in the market.”

The Beef Producer Intentions Survey was designed by MLA to provide industry with reliable data on producer intentions and sentiment and is one of the inputs used in MLA’s beef industry forecasting models.

Feedback for the Pulse Survey was collected from grassfed beef cattle producers between 1 July and 31 July 2026, with a total of 1,284 producers from across Australia responding to the survey.

Source：MLA