核心要点

澳大利亚肉牛养殖户依旧看好行业后市，澳大利亚肉类与畜牧业协会（MLA）最新发布的《肉牛养殖户意向调查报告（BPIS）》数据显示，行业乐观情绪延续，牛群补栏稳步推进。

这份 2026 年 4 月开展的调研由澳肉类畜牧协会落地，调研覆盖全国 3055 家放牧型肉牛养殖场。数据经过加权处理贴合全国养殖体量，全面反映行业信心、牛群结构与生产规划。

超六成养殖户（61%）对未来 12 个月行情持乐观态度，仅 8% 看空后市，行业净景气指数高达 + 53。

澳肉类畜牧协会资深市场分析师埃米利亚诺・迪亚兹表示，调研结果体现出行业韧性，养殖户在复杂经营环境下稳健经营。

“尽管气候与市场波动持续存在，澳大利亚肉牛从业者对来年仍保有较高信心。” 迪亚兹说道。

“相较于 2025 年末峰值，行业信心小幅回落，但仍远高于历史均值，行业基本面扎实。”

全澳各州养殖户信心全部处于乐观区间，维多利亚州与南澳景气指数同为 + 66 位居首位，塔斯马尼亚（+63）、西澳（+54）、昆士兰州（+50）、新南威尔士州（+45）紧随其后。

西澳景气指数同比涨幅最高，养殖户信心提升显著。

“各地气候与经营环境各不相同，但全行业普遍保持乐观，西澳过去一年信心提振尤为突出。”

养殖户存栏规划整体平稳：26% 养殖户计划来年扩充牛群，54% 选择维持现有存栏，21% 打算缩减存栏规模。

上述数据和去年同期基本持平，反映养殖户谨慎稳存栏、循序渐进补栏的思路。

“养殖户结合气候、饲养成本、市场行情综合权衡补栏或保群节奏。”

“多数养殖场优先保障存栏稳定，条件适宜时小幅增栏，摒弃大规模存栏异动。”

调研测算，截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日，全澳放牧型成年肉牛存栏约 2970 万头。昆士兰州为澳洲第一大肉牛产区，存栏占全国 46%；新南威尔士州占比 18%，剩余存栏分布在其余各州。

2026 年上半年肉牛出栏量偏高，养殖户合计出栏约 520 万头，上下半年出栏体量基本均分。该现象源于部分地区气候承压，叠加国内外市场需求旺盛。

“新州北部、昆士兰南部等干旱区域养殖户依据本地天气灵活出栏；全球需求旺盛、供给偏紧带来利好行情，支撑行业整体信心。” 迪亚兹表示。

他称，调研印证澳洲肉牛行业在机遇与挑战并存的环境中基本面稳固。

“国际市场利好澳洲牛肉出口，养殖户虽面临气候多变、养殖成本走高等隐患，但行业信心与生产规划保持平稳，来年发展基本面向好。”

《肉牛养殖户意向调查报告》由 MLA 编制，为行业权威参考数据，同时被澳大利亚统计局引用，也是协会肉牛产业预测模型的核心数据源。

完整报告查阅链接：2026 年 4 月肉牛养殖户意向调查报告

绵羊养殖户意向调查现已开启调研工作，有意参与填报的养殖户可登录：绵羊养殖户意向调查

消息来源：MLA

Key points

• Majority (61%) of beef producers are optimistic about the next 12 months, with net sentiment holding at +53

• Producer intentions varied across states based on pasture conditions, with southern producers looking to increase herd numbers

• 26% of producers plan to grow their herd, while 54% will maintain current levels.

Australian cattle producers remain confident in the outlook for the beef industry, with new insights from the latest Beef Producer Intentions Survey (BPIS) highlighting sustained optimism and steady herd rebuilding.

The April 2026 survey, conducted by Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA), gathered responses from 3,055 grassfed beef cattle producers nationwide. The results, weighted to reflect the national producer base, provide a comprehensive snapshot of industry sentiment, herd composition and production intentions.

More than six in ten producers (61%) reported a positive outlook for the next 12 months, while just 8% indicated a negative outlook, resulting in a strong net sentiment score of +53.

MLA Senior Market Information Analyst Emiliano Diaz said the findings reflect a resilient industry navigating a complex operating environment.

“Despite ongoing seasonal and market variability, Australian beef producers continue to show strong confidence in the year ahead,” Mr Diaz said.

“While sentiment has moderated slightly from the highs seen in late 2025, it remains well above long-term averages, highlighting the underlying strength of the sector.”

Sentiment remained positive across all states, with Victoria and South Australia recording the highest levels (both +66), followed by Tasmania (+63), Western Australia (+54), Queensland (+50) and New South Wales (+45).

Western Australia recorded the largest year-on-year improvement, reflecting a notable lift in confidence.

“These results show confidence is broadly shared across the country, even though seasonal conditions and operating environments vary by region,” Mr Diaz said.

“This is particularly evident in Western Australia, where producer sentiment has strengthened considerably over the past 12 months.”

Herd management intentions remain stable, with 26% of producers planning to increase herd size over the next year, 54% intending to maintain current levels and 21% expecting to reduce.

These figures are in line with results from the same time last year and point to a cautious but steady approach to herd management.

“Producers are carefully balancing decisions to rebuild or maintain herds against factors such as seasonal conditions, input costs and market opportunities,” Mr Diaz said.

“The data shows most producers are prioritising stability, with gradual herd growth where conditions allow rather than large-scale shifts.”

The survey estimates the national grassfed adult cattle herd at approximately 29.7 million head as at 31 March 2026. Queensland remains the largest cattle-producing state, accounting for around 46% of the national herd, followed by New South Wales at 18%, with other states comprising the remainder.

Strong levels of cattle turn-off were reported in the first half of 2026, with producers indicating total sales of approximately 5.2 million head, split relatively evenly between the first and second quarters.This reflects both seasonal pressures in some regions and continued strong demand across domestic and export markets.

“Producers are actively managing stock levels in response to local seasonal conditions, particularly in areas affected by dry weather, including northern NSW and southern Queensland,” Mr Diaz said.

“At the same time, strong global demand and tight supply are creating opportunities, which is helping to support overall confidence.”

Mr Diaz said the results reinforce the strength of the Australian beef industry as it navigates a period of both opportunity and challenge.

“Global market conditions remain favourable for Australian beef, even as producers manage ongoing risks such as climate variability and input costs,” he said.

“The consistency in producer sentiment and intentions underscores a sector that is well positioned for the year ahead.”

The Beef Producer Intentions Survey was developed by MLA to provide reliable industry insights and is used by both MLA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). It is also a key input into MLA’s beef industry forecasting models.

To view the full report, visit: Beef Producers Intentions Survey April 2026

The next Sheep Producers Intentions Survey is currently in field. All sheep producers who are interested to have their say are encouraged to here: Sheep Producers Intentions Survey

Source：MLA